New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals Over his last two games, Eli Manning has completed a total of 25 passes in 53 attempts for 317 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Per Greg Cosell in this week’s preview podcast , some league sources indicate that Manning’s arm looks “tired” of late, and there are some questions about the abilities of New York’s receiver corps to separate from coverage consistently. The cure for what ails the Giants’ passing game could well be a Bengals’ secondary than currently ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings . The Bengals’ secondary is the only thing stopping Mike Zimmer’s squad from being elite, but it’s a big problem. Manning will need to get that pass game going again, because his offense will not do much on the ground against Cincy’s stout front seven. We’ll bank on an Eli comeback. Pick: Giants 23, Bengals 17 Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins The Dolphins are on a bit of a roll, though they lost last Sunday to the super-hot Colts, and the Titans are just getting rolled, period. Miami is living off their run game to an unexpected degree, rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill has developed impressively, and the defense is standing tall, especially against the run. Though left tackle Jake Long is having an off-season, the Dolphins’ offense should have enough firepower to pace past a Titans defense incapable of providing consistent pass pressure. That’s not a problem for Miami’s defense, and with Jake Locker expected to start, the ‘Fins should be in the catbird seat. Pick: Dolphins 34, Titans 20 Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings A distressing notion for the Vikings and their run-first offense: Quarterback Christian Ponder has completed just 50 percent of his play-action passes in the team’s last three games. That’s down from 74 percent earlier in the season, and the downshift coincides with the relative disappearance of tight end Kyle Rudolph. Opposing defenses are also teeing off on Ponder when the Vikings run play action, and he’s not been effectively mobile enough to bail out. Percy Harvin’s out of this game with an ankle injury, which means that the Lions can stack the box against Adrian Peterson and force Ponder to beat them. Not that stacking the box against Purple Jesus has worked all year, but if Ponder has to make plays and decide the game, the forecast is not good. Pick: Lions 30, Vikings 16 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots A practical question: How would the Buffalo Bills go about winning this game? By running C.J. Spiller into New England’s underperforming defense? Spiller’s snap counts have been reduced in the last few weeks, for reasons we fail to understand. Exploit the Pats; weak secondary? Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for over 239 yards in a game was against this defense in September, when he went off for 350 yards and four touchdowns — of course, he threw four picks as well, and the Bills lost, 52-28. Beat New England’s underrated offensive tackles with their own pass rush? Yeah, right. Pick: Patriots 42, Bills 20 Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints The Saints showed some interesting new things on defense against the Eagles last Monday night, and the Falcons should take notice. New Orleans defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo finally lined up his scheme and personnel, sending linebackers on blitzes from different levels and harassing Michael Vick throughout Philly’s blowout loss. Of course, Atlanta’s offense is more solid and its offensive line is far stronger, but as much as Matt Ryan has developed this season, he’s still balky when you send pressure right up the A-gaps. The key to an upset, if the Saints are going to accomplish that feat, is to balance pass rush with coverage against the Falcons’ receivers — they’re the best in the NFL at winning one-on-one matchups. Call us crazy, but we’re riding along with the Saints’ recent momentum and saying that New Orleans will do just that. Pick: Saints 31. Falcons 28 San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 10 Sunday Picks: Revenge games for coaches among key matchups (Shutdown Corner)
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